Planning model
World Cup 2026 chances by team.
Compare each team's modelled chance of reaching the knockout stage, then open a team page to see the confirmed schedule and possible route by city.
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Start with today's scheduled games, then open the teams below to compare routes and knockout chances.
All 48 teams
Chance to reach the knockout stage
These estimates come from a simple planning model. They are designed to make route comparisons useful, not to imitate official odds or a live betting market.
Group J
Argentina
96%
Reach the knockout stage
58% win group
28% finish second
10% advance third
4% group exit
Group I
France
96%
Reach the knockout stage
57% win group
29% finish second
10% advance third
4% group exit
Group F
Netherlands
95.3%
Reach the knockout stage
46.8% win group
33.4% finish second
15.1% advance third
4.7% group exit
Group C
Brazil
95%
Reach the knockout stage
55% win group
30% finish second
10% advance third
5% group exit
Group L
England
95%
Reach the knockout stage
56% win group
29% finish second
10% advance third
5% group exit
Group K
Portugal
95%
Reach the knockout stage
54% win group
30% finish second
11% advance third
5% group exit
Group H
Spain
95%
Reach the knockout stage
56% win group
29% finish second
10% advance third
5% group exit
Group E
Germany
94%
Reach the knockout stage
52% win group
31% finish second
11% advance third
6% group exit
Group A
Mexico
94%
Reach the knockout stage
51% win group
30% finish second
13% advance third
6% group exit
Group G
Belgium
92.5%
Reach the knockout stage
44.4% win group
32.7% finish second
15.4% advance third
7.5% group exit
Group D
USA
92%
Reach the knockout stage
42% win group
33% finish second
17% advance third
8% group exit
Group H
Uruguay
91%
Reach the knockout stage
43.2% win group
32.4% finish second
15.5% advance third
9% group exit
Group K
Colombia
89.6%
Reach the knockout stage
42% win group
32% finish second
15.6% advance third
10.4% group exit
Group B
Canada
89%
Reach the knockout stage
35% win group
33% finish second
21% advance third
11% group exit
Group L
Croatia
88.2%
Reach the knockout stage
40.8% win group
31.7% finish second
15.7% advance third
11.8% group exit
Group C
Morocco
83.9%
Reach the knockout stage
37.2% win group
30.6% finish second
16.1% advance third
16.1% group exit
Group F
Japan
82.4%
Reach the knockout stage
36% win group
30.3% finish second
16.2% advance third
17.6% group exit
Group B
Switzerland
82.4%
Reach the knockout stage
36% win group
30.3% finish second
16.2% advance third
17.6% group exit
Group I
Senegal
81%
Reach the knockout stage
34.8% win group
29.9% finish second
16.3% advance third
19% group exit
Group J
Austria
79.6%
Reach the knockout stage
33.6% win group
29.6% finish second
16.4% advance third
20.4% group exit
Group F
Sweden
79.6%
Reach the knockout stage
33.6% win group
29.6% finish second
16.4% advance third
20.4% group exit
Group E
Ecuador
78.2%
Reach the knockout stage
32.4% win group
29.2% finish second
16.6% advance third
21.8% group exit
Group D
Australia
75.3%
Reach the knockout stage
30% win group
28.5% finish second
16.8% advance third
24.7% group exit
Group D
Turkiye
75.3%
Reach the knockout stage
30% win group
28.5% finish second
16.8% advance third
24.7% group exit
Group L
Ghana
72.4%
Reach the knockout stage
27.6% win group
27.8% finish second
17% advance third
27.6% group exit
Group I
Norway
72.4%
Reach the knockout stage
27.6% win group
27.8% finish second
17% advance third
27.6% group exit
Group C
Scotland
72.4%
Reach the knockout stage
27.6% win group
27.8% finish second
17% advance third
27.6% group exit
Group D
Paraguay
71%
Reach the knockout stage
26.4% win group
27.5% finish second
17.2% advance third
29% group exit
Group A
South Korea
71%
Reach the knockout stage
26.4% win group
27.5% finish second
17.2% advance third
29% group exit
Group G
Egypt
69.6%
Reach the knockout stage
25.2% win group
27.1% finish second
17.3% advance third
30.4% group exit
Group G
Iran
69.6%
Reach the knockout stage
25.2% win group
27.1% finish second
17.3% advance third
30.4% group exit
Group E
Ivory Coast
69.6%
Reach the knockout stage
25.2% win group
27.1% finish second
17.3% advance third
30.4% group exit
Group J
Algeria
68.1%
Reach the knockout stage
24% win group
26.8% finish second
17.4% advance third
31.9% group exit
Group A
Czechia
66.7%
Reach the knockout stage
22.8% win group
26.4% finish second
17.5% advance third
33.3% group exit
Group F
Tunisia
66.7%
Reach the knockout stage
22.8% win group
26.4% finish second
17.5% advance third
33.3% group exit
Group B
Qatar
62.4%
Reach the knockout stage
19.2% win group
25.4% finish second
17.9% advance third
37.6% group exit
Group H
Saudi Arabia
62.4%
Reach the knockout stage
19.2% win group
25.4% finish second
17.9% advance third
37.6% group exit
Group A
South Africa
62.4%
Reach the knockout stage
19.2% win group
25.4% finish second
17.9% advance third
37.6% group exit
Group L
Panama
61%
Reach the knockout stage
18% win group
25% finish second
18% advance third
39% group exit
Group K
Uzbekistan
61%
Reach the knockout stage
18% win group
25% finish second
18% advance third
39% group exit
Group K
DR Congo
59.6%
Reach the knockout stage
16.8% win group
24.7% finish second
18.1% advance third
40.4% group exit
Group I
Iraq
58.1%
Reach the knockout stage
15.6% win group
24.3% finish second
18.2% advance third
41.9% group exit
Group J
Jordan
56.7%
Reach the knockout stage
14.4% win group
24% finish second
18.4% advance third
43.3% group exit
Group G
New Zealand
55.3%
Reach the knockout stage
13.2% win group
23.6% finish second
18.5% advance third
44.7% group exit
Group C
Haiti
53.8%
Reach the knockout stage
12% win group
23.3% finish second
18.6% advance third
46.2% group exit
Group B
Bosnia & Herzegovina
52.4%
Reach the knockout stage
10.8% win group
22.9% finish second
18.7% advance third
47.6% group exit
Group H
Cape Verde
51%
Reach the knockout stage
9.6% win group
22.6% finish second
18.8% advance third
49% group exit
Group E
Curacao
48.7%
Reach the knockout stage
8% win group
21.5% finish second
19.2% advance third
51.3% group exit
FAQ
World Cup 2026 chances FAQ
What does a team chance mean on WC26 Chances?
It is the modelled chance that a team reaches the World Cup 2026 knockout stage. It includes finishing first, finishing second, or advancing as one of the best third-place teams.
Are these official World Cup 2026 odds?
No. These are planning-model estimates, not official forecasts and not live betting-market prices. Use them to compare possible routes, then open a team page for the underlying schedule and bracket path.
Why can a third-place team still reach the knockouts?
The 2026 tournament has 12 groups. The eight best third-place teams join the group winners and runners-up in the Round of 32.