95% modelled chance to reach the knockout stage
Spain World Cup 2026 chances.
The planning model gives Spain a 95% chance to get out of Group H. Start with the confirmed games against Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
Spain plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Atlanta and Guadalajara.
Atlanta
Mon, Jun 15 · 12:00 PM · vs Cape Verde
Atlanta
Sun, Jun 21 · 12:00 PM · vs Saudi Arabia
Guadalajara
Fri, Jun 26 · 7:00 PM · vs Uruguay
Spain vs Cape Verde
Atlanta
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Mon, Jun 15 · 12:00 PM
Spain vs Saudi Arabia
Atlanta
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Sun, Jun 21 · 12:00 PM
Uruguay vs Spain
Guadalajara
Estadio Akron
Fri, Jun 26 · 7:00 PM
Route odds
How could Spain get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
56%
Finish second
29%
Advance as third
10%
Out in group
5%
Next step
Looking for Spain tickets?
Use the confirmed Spain cities here first, then check FIFA's official ticket page for current availability.
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Tell us you care about Spain, and we will shape alerts around the cities that matter next.
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Spain World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does Spain play in World Cup 2026?
Spain plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Atlanta and Guadalajara.
When is Spain's first World Cup 2026 match?
Spain's first group match is Spain vs Cape Verde on Mon, Jun 15 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Who does Spain play in the group stage?
Spain plays Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay in Group H.
What stadiums does Spain play at in World Cup 2026?
Spain's confirmed group-stage stadiums are Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and Estadio Akron.
What is Spain's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether Spain wins Group H, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
56% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 83
Los Angeles
Thu, Jul 2 · SoFi Stadium
Chance here
56%
Win this match: 69.8%
Total path chance: 39.1%
Next: Dallas · Round of 16
Lose this match: 30.2%
Total path chance: 16.9%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 93
Dallas
Mon, Jul 6 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
39.1%
Win this match: 64.3%
Total path chance: 25.1%
Next: Los Angeles · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 35.7%
Total path chance: 14%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 98
Los Angeles
Fri, Jul 10 · SoFi Stadium
Chance here
25.1%
Win this match: 58.8%
Total path chance: 14.8%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 41.2%
Total path chance: 10.3%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
14.8%
Win this match: 55.3%
Total path chance: 8.2%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 44.7%
Total path chance: 6.6%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
8.2%
Win this match: 51.8%
Total path chance: 4.2%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 48.2%
Total path chance: 4%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
29% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 87
Miami
Fri, Jul 3 · Hard Rock Stadium
Chance here
29%
Win this match: 69.8%
Total path chance: 20.2%
Next: Vancouver · Round of 16
Lose this match: 30.2%
Total path chance: 8.8%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 96
Vancouver
Tue, Jul 7 · BC Place
Chance here
20.2%
Win this match: 64.3%
Total path chance: 13%
Next: Kansas City · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 35.7%
Total path chance: 7.2%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 100
Kansas City
Sat, Jul 11 · Arrowhead Stadium
Chance here
13%
Win this match: 58.8%
Total path chance: 7.6%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 41.2%
Total path chance: 5.4%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
7.6%
Win this match: 55.3%
Total path chance: 4.2%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 44.7%
Total path chance: 3.4%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
4.2%
Win this match: 51.8%
Total path chance: 2.2%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 48.2%
Total path chance: 2%
Next: Eliminated
What this page is for
This page is for quick planning.
If you support Spain, start here to see the cities that are already locked in. Tickets, hotels, and odds are useful later, but the first question is simpler: where might you need to be?