24.6% modelled chance to reach the semifinal
Argentina World Cup 2026 chances.
The route model gives Argentina a 40.6% chance to reach the quarterfinal and a 24.6% chance to reach the semifinal. Start with the confirmed games against Algeria, Austria, and Jordan, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
Argentina plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Kansas City and Dallas.
Chance ladder
How far could Argentina go?
These are model estimates for route planning. They use the confirmed bracket path plus a static team-strength rating, so they are not live betting odds and they do not yet ingest match results minute by minute.
Knockouts
96%
Quarterfinal
40.6%
Semifinal
24.6%
Final
14.1%
Champion
7.6%
Tournament is live
Check today's games before planning Argentina's route.
The current-slate page shows today's listed matches, kickoff times, cities, stadiums, and links back to the team and match pages that matter next.
Route model
How could Argentina get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
58%
Finish second
28%
Advance as third
10%
Out in group
4%
Before you book
Turn Argentina's route into a plan.
Argentina is confirmed for Kansas City and Dallas. Use those cities as the base case, then keep the knockout rounds flexible until the group table is clearer.
Tickets
Use the confirmed cities first, then check FIFA for current ticket information.
Check official ticketsHotels
Start with Kansas City, then keep bookings flexible for knockout routes.
Compare hotelsRoute alerts
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Request route alertsCommon questions
Argentina World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does Argentina play in World Cup 2026?
Argentina plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Kansas City and Dallas.
When is Argentina's first World Cup 2026 match?
Argentina's first group match is Argentina vs Algeria on Tue, Jun 16 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.
Who does Argentina play in the group stage?
Argentina plays Algeria, Austria, and Jordan in Group J.
What stadiums does Argentina play at in World Cup 2026?
Argentina's confirmed group-stage stadiums are Arrowhead Stadium, AT&T Stadium, and AT&T Stadium.
What is Argentina's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether Argentina wins Group J, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
58% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 87
Miami
Fri, Jul 3 · Hard Rock Stadium
Chance here
58%
Win this match: 71.6%
Total path chance: 41.5%
Next: Vancouver · Round of 16
Lose this match: 28.4%
Total path chance: 16.5%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 96
Vancouver
Tue, Jul 7 · BC Place
Chance here
41.5%
Win this match: 66.1%
Total path chance: 27.4%
Next: Kansas City · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 33.9%
Total path chance: 14.1%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 100
Kansas City
Sat, Jul 11 · Arrowhead Stadium
Chance here
27.4%
Win this match: 60.6%
Total path chance: 16.6%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 39.4%
Total path chance: 10.8%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
16.6%
Win this match: 57.1%
Total path chance: 9.5%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 42.9%
Total path chance: 7.1%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
9.5%
Win this match: 53.6%
Total path chance: 5.1%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 46.4%
Total path chance: 4.4%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
28% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 83
Los Angeles
Thu, Jul 2 · SoFi Stadium
Chance here
28%
Win this match: 71.6%
Total path chance: 20%
Next: Dallas · Round of 16
Lose this match: 28.4%
Total path chance: 8%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 93
Dallas
Mon, Jul 6 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
20%
Win this match: 66.1%
Total path chance: 13.2%
Next: Los Angeles · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 33.9%
Total path chance: 6.8%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 98
Los Angeles
Fri, Jul 10 · SoFi Stadium
Chance here
13.2%
Win this match: 60.6%
Total path chance: 8%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 39.4%
Total path chance: 5.2%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
8%
Win this match: 57.1%
Total path chance: 4.6%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 42.9%
Total path chance: 3.4%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
4.6%
Win this match: 53.6%
Total path chance: 2.5%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 46.4%
Total path chance: 2.1%
Next: Eliminated
Model notes
Built for decisions, labelled as an estimate.
Current model version: static team strength plus confirmed schedule and bracket routes, updated July 14, 2026. Use it to compare route risk and travel options. Check official ticket, match, and team sources before booking.