89% modelled chance to reach the knockout stage
Canada World Cup 2026 chances.
The planning model gives Canada a 89% chance to get out of Group B. Start with the confirmed games against Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar, and Switzerland, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
Canada plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Toronto and Vancouver.
Toronto
Fri, Jun 12 · 3:00 PM · vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Vancouver
Thu, Jun 18 · 6:00 PM · vs Qatar
Vancouver
Wed, Jun 24 · 3:00 PM · vs Switzerland
Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Toronto
BMO Field
Fri, Jun 12 · 3:00 PM
Canada vs Qatar
Vancouver
BC Place
Thu, Jun 18 · 6:00 PM
Switzerland vs Canada
Vancouver
BC Place
Wed, Jun 24 · 3:00 PM
Route odds
How could Canada get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
35%
Finish second
33%
Advance as third
21%
Out in group
11%
Next step
Looking for Canada tickets?
Use the confirmed Canada cities here first, then check FIFA's official ticket page for current availability.
Check ticketsNext step
Want Canada route updates?
Tell us you care about Canada, and we will shape alerts around the cities that matter next.
Send me updatesCommon questions
Canada World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does Canada play in World Cup 2026?
Canada plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Toronto and Vancouver.
When is Canada's first World Cup 2026 match?
Canada's first group match is Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina on Fri, Jun 12 at BMO Field in Toronto.
Who does Canada play in the group stage?
Canada plays Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar, and Switzerland in Group B.
What stadiums does Canada play at in World Cup 2026?
Canada's confirmed group-stage stadiums are BMO Field, BC Place, and BC Place.
What is Canada's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether Canada wins Group B, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
35% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 85
Vancouver
Thu, Jul 2 · BC Place
Chance here
35%
Win this match: 49.1%
Total path chance: 17.2%
Next: Vancouver · Round of 16
Lose this match: 50.9%
Total path chance: 17.8%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 96
Vancouver
Tue, Jul 7 · BC Place
Chance here
17.2%
Win this match: 43.6%
Total path chance: 7.5%
Next: Kansas City · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 56.4%
Total path chance: 9.7%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 100
Kansas City
Sat, Jul 11 · Arrowhead Stadium
Chance here
7.5%
Win this match: 38.1%
Total path chance: 2.9%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 61.9%
Total path chance: 4.6%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
2.9%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 1.1%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 1.8%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
1.1%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.4%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.7%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
33% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 73
Los Angeles
Sun, Jun 28 · SoFi Stadium
Chance here
33%
Win this match: 49.1%
Total path chance: 16.2%
Next: Houston · Round of 16
Lose this match: 50.9%
Total path chance: 16.8%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 89
Houston
Sat, Jul 4 · NRG Stadium
Chance here
16.2%
Win this match: 43.6%
Total path chance: 7.1%
Next: Boston · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 56.4%
Total path chance: 9.1%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 97
Boston
Thu, Jul 9 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
7.1%
Win this match: 38.1%
Total path chance: 2.7%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 61.9%
Total path chance: 4.4%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
2.7%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 1%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 1.7%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
1%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.4%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.6%
Next: Eliminated
What this page is for
This page is for quick planning.
If you support Canada, start here to see the cities that are already locked in. Tickets, hotels, and odds are useful later, but the first question is simpler: where might you need to be?