69.6% modelled chance to reach the knockout stage
Iran World Cup 2026 chances.
The planning model gives Iran a 69.6% chance to get out of Group G. Start with the confirmed games against New Zealand, Belgium, and Egypt, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
Iran plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Los Angeles and Seattle.
Los Angeles
Mon, Jun 15 · 9:00 PM · vs New Zealand
Los Angeles
Sun, Jun 21 · 3:00 PM · vs Belgium
Seattle
Fri, Jun 26 · 11:00 PM · vs Egypt
Iran vs New Zealand
Los Angeles
SoFi Stadium
Mon, Jun 15 · 9:00 PM
Belgium vs Iran
Los Angeles
SoFi Stadium
Sun, Jun 21 · 3:00 PM
Egypt vs Iran
Seattle
Lumen Field
Fri, Jun 26 · 11:00 PM
Route odds
How could Iran get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
25.2%
Finish second
27.1%
Advance as third
17.3%
Out in group
30.4%
Next step
Looking for Iran tickets?
Use the confirmed Iran cities here first, then check FIFA's official ticket page for current availability.
Check ticketsNext step
Want Iran route updates?
Tell us you care about Iran, and we will shape alerts around the cities that matter next.
Send me updatesCommon questions
Iran World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does Iran play in World Cup 2026?
Iran plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Los Angeles and Seattle.
When is Iran's first World Cup 2026 match?
Iran's first group match is Iran vs New Zealand on Mon, Jun 15 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.
Who does Iran play in the group stage?
Iran plays New Zealand, Belgium, and Egypt in Group G.
What stadiums does Iran play at in World Cup 2026?
Iran's confirmed group-stage stadiums are SoFi Stadium, SoFi Stadium, and Lumen Field.
What is Iran's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether Iran wins Group G, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
25.2% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 81
Seattle
Wed, Jul 1 · Lumen Field
Chance here
25.2%
Win this match: 46.4%
Total path chance: 11.7%
Next: Seattle · Round of 16
Lose this match: 53.6%
Total path chance: 13.5%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 94
Seattle
Mon, Jul 6 · Lumen Field
Chance here
11.7%
Win this match: 40.9%
Total path chance: 4.8%
Next: Los Angeles · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 59.1%
Total path chance: 6.9%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 98
Los Angeles
Fri, Jul 10 · SoFi Stadium
Chance here
4.8%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 1.8%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 3%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
1.8%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.7%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 1.1%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
0.7%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.3%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.4%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
27.1% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 86
Dallas
Fri, Jul 3 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
27.1%
Win this match: 46.4%
Total path chance: 12.6%
Next: Atlanta · Round of 16
Lose this match: 53.6%
Total path chance: 14.5%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 95
Atlanta
Tue, Jul 7 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
12.6%
Win this match: 40.9%
Total path chance: 5.2%
Next: Kansas City · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 59.1%
Total path chance: 7.4%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 100
Kansas City
Sat, Jul 11 · Arrowhead Stadium
Chance here
5.2%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 2%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 3.2%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
2%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.8%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 1.2%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
0.8%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.3%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.5%
Next: Eliminated
What this page is for
This page is for quick planning.
If you support Iran, start here to see the cities that are already locked in. Tickets, hotels, and odds are useful later, but the first question is simpler: where might you need to be?