16% modelled chance to reach the semifinal
Germany World Cup 2026 chances.
The route model gives Germany a 30.5% chance to reach the quarterfinal and a 16% chance to reach the semifinal. Start with the confirmed games against Curacao, Ivory Coast, and Ecuador, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
Germany plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Houston, Toronto, and New York/New Jersey.
Chance ladder
How far could Germany go?
These are model estimates for route planning. They use the confirmed bracket path plus a static team-strength rating, so they are not live betting odds and they do not yet ingest match results minute by minute.
Knockouts
94%
Quarterfinal
30.5%
Semifinal
16%
Final
7.8%
Champion
3.5%
Tournament is live
Check today's games before planning Germany's route.
The current-slate page shows today's listed matches, kickoff times, cities, stadiums, and links back to the team and match pages that matter next.
Route model
How could Germany get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
52%
Finish second
31%
Advance as third
11%
Out in group
6%
Before you book
Turn Germany's route into a plan.
Germany is confirmed for Houston, Toronto, and New York/New Jersey. Use those cities as the base case, then keep the knockout rounds flexible until the group table is clearer.
Tickets
Use the confirmed cities first, then check FIFA for current ticket information.
Check official ticketsHotels
Start with Houston, then keep bookings flexible for knockout routes.
Compare hotelsRoute alerts
Tell us the team you care about so we can shape useful city and route updates.
Request route alertsCommon questions
Germany World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does Germany play in World Cup 2026?
Germany plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Houston, Toronto, and New York/New Jersey.
When is Germany's first World Cup 2026 match?
Germany's first group match is Germany vs Curacao on Sun, Jun 14 at NRG Stadium in Houston.
Who does Germany play in the group stage?
Germany plays Curacao, Ivory Coast, and Ecuador in Group E.
What stadiums does Germany play at in World Cup 2026?
Germany's confirmed group-stage stadiums are NRG Stadium, BMO Field, and MetLife Stadium.
What is Germany's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether Germany wins Group E, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
52% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 75
Boston
Mon, Jun 29 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
52%
Win this match: 63.5%
Total path chance: 33%
Next: Houston · Round of 16
Lose this match: 36.5%
Total path chance: 19%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 89
Houston
Sat, Jul 4 · NRG Stadium
Chance here
33%
Win this match: 58%
Total path chance: 19.1%
Next: Boston · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 42%
Total path chance: 13.9%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 97
Boston
Thu, Jul 9 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
19.1%
Win this match: 52.5%
Total path chance: 10%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 47.5%
Total path chance: 9.1%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
10%
Win this match: 49%
Total path chance: 4.9%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 51%
Total path chance: 5.1%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
4.9%
Win this match: 45.5%
Total path chance: 2.2%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 54.5%
Total path chance: 2.7%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
31% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 77
Dallas
Tue, Jun 30 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
31%
Win this match: 63.5%
Total path chance: 19.7%
Next: Philadelphia · Round of 16
Lose this match: 36.5%
Total path chance: 11.3%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 90
Philadelphia
Sat, Jul 4 · Lincoln Financial Field
Chance here
19.7%
Win this match: 58%
Total path chance: 11.4%
Next: Boston · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 42%
Total path chance: 8.3%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 97
Boston
Thu, Jul 9 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
11.4%
Win this match: 52.5%
Total path chance: 6%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 47.5%
Total path chance: 5.4%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
6%
Win this match: 49%
Total path chance: 2.9%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 51%
Total path chance: 3.1%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
2.9%
Win this match: 45.5%
Total path chance: 1.3%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 54.5%
Total path chance: 1.6%
Next: Eliminated
Model notes
Built for decisions, labelled as an estimate.
Current model version: static team strength plus confirmed schedule and bracket routes, updated July 14, 2026. Use it to compare route risk and travel options. Check official ticket, match, and team sources before booking.