94% modelled chance to reach the knockout stage
Germany World Cup 2026 chances.
The planning model gives Germany a 94% chance to get out of Group E. Start with the confirmed games against Curacao, Ivory Coast, and Ecuador, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
Germany plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Houston, Toronto, and New York/New Jersey.
Houston
Sun, Jun 14 · 1:00 PM · vs Curacao
Toronto
Sat, Jun 20 · 4:00 PM · vs Ivory Coast
New York/New Jersey
Thu, Jun 25 · 4:00 PM · vs Ecuador
Germany vs Curacao
Houston
NRG Stadium
Sun, Jun 14 · 1:00 PM
Germany vs Ivory Coast
Toronto
BMO Field
Sat, Jun 20 · 4:00 PM
Ecuador vs Germany
New York/New Jersey
MetLife Stadium
Thu, Jun 25 · 4:00 PM
Route odds
How could Germany get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
52%
Finish second
31%
Advance as third
11%
Out in group
6%
Next step
Looking for Germany tickets?
Use the confirmed Germany cities here first, then check FIFA's official ticket page for current availability.
Check ticketsNext step
Want Germany route updates?
Tell us you care about Germany, and we will shape alerts around the cities that matter next.
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Germany World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does Germany play in World Cup 2026?
Germany plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Houston, Toronto, and New York/New Jersey.
When is Germany's first World Cup 2026 match?
Germany's first group match is Germany vs Curacao on Sun, Jun 14 at NRG Stadium in Houston.
Who does Germany play in the group stage?
Germany plays Curacao, Ivory Coast, and Ecuador in Group E.
What stadiums does Germany play at in World Cup 2026?
Germany's confirmed group-stage stadiums are NRG Stadium, BMO Field, and MetLife Stadium.
What is Germany's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether Germany wins Group E, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
52% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 75
Boston
Mon, Jun 29 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
52%
Win this match: 63.5%
Total path chance: 33%
Next: Houston · Round of 16
Lose this match: 36.5%
Total path chance: 19%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 89
Houston
Sat, Jul 4 · NRG Stadium
Chance here
33%
Win this match: 58%
Total path chance: 19.1%
Next: Boston · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 42%
Total path chance: 13.9%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 97
Boston
Thu, Jul 9 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
19.1%
Win this match: 52.5%
Total path chance: 10%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 47.5%
Total path chance: 9.1%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
10%
Win this match: 49%
Total path chance: 4.9%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 51%
Total path chance: 5.1%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
4.9%
Win this match: 45.5%
Total path chance: 2.2%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 54.5%
Total path chance: 2.7%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
31% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 77
Dallas
Tue, Jun 30 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
31%
Win this match: 63.5%
Total path chance: 19.7%
Next: Philadelphia · Round of 16
Lose this match: 36.5%
Total path chance: 11.3%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 90
Philadelphia
Sat, Jul 4 · Lincoln Financial Field
Chance here
19.7%
Win this match: 58%
Total path chance: 11.4%
Next: Boston · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 42%
Total path chance: 8.3%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 97
Boston
Thu, Jul 9 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
11.4%
Win this match: 52.5%
Total path chance: 6%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 47.5%
Total path chance: 5.4%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
6%
Win this match: 49%
Total path chance: 2.9%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 51%
Total path chance: 3.1%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
2.9%
Win this match: 45.5%
Total path chance: 1.3%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 54.5%
Total path chance: 1.6%
Next: Eliminated
What this page is for
This page is for quick planning.
If you support Germany, start here to see the cities that are already locked in. Tickets, hotels, and odds are useful later, but the first question is simpler: where might you need to be?