20.6% modelled chance to reach the semifinal
England World Cup 2026 chances.
The route model gives England a 36.1% chance to reach the quarterfinal and a 20.6% chance to reach the semifinal. Start with the confirmed games against Croatia, Ghana, and Panama, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
England plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Dallas, Boston, and New York/New Jersey.
Chance ladder
How far could England go?
These are model estimates for route planning. They use the confirmed bracket path plus a static team-strength rating, so they are not live betting odds and they do not yet ingest match results minute by minute.
Knockouts
95%
Quarterfinal
36.1%
Semifinal
20.6%
Final
11%
Champion
5.6%
Tournament is live
Check today's games before planning England's route.
The current-slate page shows today's listed matches, kickoff times, cities, stadiums, and links back to the team and match pages that matter next.
Route model
How could England get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
56%
Finish second
29%
Advance as third
10%
Out in group
5%
Before you book
Turn England's route into a plan.
England is confirmed for Dallas, Boston, and New York/New Jersey. Use those cities as the base case, then keep the knockout rounds flexible until the group table is clearer.
Tickets
Use the confirmed cities first, then check FIFA for current ticket information.
Check official ticketsHotels
Start with Dallas, then keep bookings flexible for knockout routes.
Compare hotelsRoute alerts
Tell us the team you care about so we can shape useful city and route updates.
Request route alertsCommon questions
England World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does England play in World Cup 2026?
England plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Dallas, Boston, and New York/New Jersey.
When is England's first World Cup 2026 match?
England's first group match is England vs Croatia on Wed, Jun 17 at AT&T Stadium in Dallas.
Who does England play in the group stage?
England plays Croatia, Ghana, and Panama in Group L.
What stadiums does England play at in World Cup 2026?
England's confirmed group-stage stadiums are AT&T Stadium, Gillette Stadium, and MetLife Stadium.
What is England's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether England wins Group L, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
56% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 80
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 1 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
56%
Win this match: 68%
Total path chance: 38.1%
Next: Mexico City · Round of 16
Lose this match: 32%
Total path chance: 17.9%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 92
Mexico City
Sun, Jul 5 · Estadio Azteca
Chance here
38.1%
Win this match: 62.5%
Total path chance: 23.8%
Next: Miami · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 37.5%
Total path chance: 14.3%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 99
Miami
Sat, Jul 11 · Hard Rock Stadium
Chance here
23.8%
Win this match: 57%
Total path chance: 13.6%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 43%
Total path chance: 10.2%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
13.6%
Win this match: 53.5%
Total path chance: 7.3%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 46.5%
Total path chance: 6.3%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
7.3%
Win this match: 50%
Total path chance: 3.7%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 50%
Total path chance: 3.7%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
29% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 84
Toronto
Thu, Jul 2 · BMO Field
Chance here
29%
Win this match: 68%
Total path chance: 19.7%
Next: Dallas · Round of 16
Lose this match: 32%
Total path chance: 9.3%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 93
Dallas
Mon, Jul 6 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
19.7%
Win this match: 62.5%
Total path chance: 12.3%
Next: Los Angeles · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 37.5%
Total path chance: 7.4%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 98
Los Angeles
Fri, Jul 10 · SoFi Stadium
Chance here
12.3%
Win this match: 57%
Total path chance: 7%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 43%
Total path chance: 5.3%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
7%
Win this match: 53.5%
Total path chance: 3.7%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 46.5%
Total path chance: 3.3%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
3.7%
Win this match: 50%
Total path chance: 1.9%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 50%
Total path chance: 1.9%
Next: Eliminated
Model notes
Built for decisions, labelled as an estimate.
Current model version: static team strength plus confirmed schedule and bracket routes, updated July 14, 2026. Use it to compare route risk and travel options. Check official ticket, match, and team sources before booking.