95% modelled chance to reach the knockout stage
England World Cup 2026 chances.
The planning model gives England a 95% chance to get out of Group L. Start with the confirmed games against Croatia, Ghana, and Panama, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
England plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Dallas, Boston, and New York/New Jersey.
Dallas
Wed, Jun 17 · 4:00 PM · vs Croatia
Boston
Tue, Jun 23 · 4:00 PM · vs Ghana
New York/New Jersey
Sat, Jun 27 · 5:00 PM · vs Panama
England vs Croatia
Dallas
AT&T Stadium
Wed, Jun 17 · 4:00 PM
England vs Ghana
Boston
Gillette Stadium
Tue, Jun 23 · 4:00 PM
Panama vs England
New York/New Jersey
MetLife Stadium
Sat, Jun 27 · 5:00 PM
Route odds
How could England get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
56%
Finish second
29%
Advance as third
10%
Out in group
5%
Next step
Looking for England tickets?
Use the confirmed England cities here first, then check FIFA's official ticket page for current availability.
Check ticketsNext step
Want England route updates?
Tell us you care about England, and we will shape alerts around the cities that matter next.
Send me updatesCommon questions
England World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does England play in World Cup 2026?
England plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Dallas, Boston, and New York/New Jersey.
When is England's first World Cup 2026 match?
England's first group match is England vs Croatia on Wed, Jun 17 at AT&T Stadium in Dallas.
Who does England play in the group stage?
England plays Croatia, Ghana, and Panama in Group L.
What stadiums does England play at in World Cup 2026?
England's confirmed group-stage stadiums are AT&T Stadium, Gillette Stadium, and MetLife Stadium.
What is England's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether England wins Group L, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
56% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 80
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 1 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
56%
Win this match: 68%
Total path chance: 38.1%
Next: Mexico City · Round of 16
Lose this match: 32%
Total path chance: 17.9%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 92
Mexico City
Sun, Jul 5 · Estadio Azteca
Chance here
38.1%
Win this match: 62.5%
Total path chance: 23.8%
Next: Miami · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 37.5%
Total path chance: 14.3%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 99
Miami
Sat, Jul 11 · Hard Rock Stadium
Chance here
23.8%
Win this match: 57%
Total path chance: 13.6%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 43%
Total path chance: 10.2%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
13.6%
Win this match: 53.5%
Total path chance: 7.3%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 46.5%
Total path chance: 6.3%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
7.3%
Win this match: 50%
Total path chance: 3.7%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 50%
Total path chance: 3.7%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
29% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 84
Toronto
Thu, Jul 2 · BMO Field
Chance here
29%
Win this match: 68%
Total path chance: 19.7%
Next: Dallas · Round of 16
Lose this match: 32%
Total path chance: 9.3%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 93
Dallas
Mon, Jul 6 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
19.7%
Win this match: 62.5%
Total path chance: 12.3%
Next: Los Angeles · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 37.5%
Total path chance: 7.4%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 98
Los Angeles
Fri, Jul 10 · SoFi Stadium
Chance here
12.3%
Win this match: 57%
Total path chance: 7%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 43%
Total path chance: 5.3%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
7%
Win this match: 53.5%
Total path chance: 3.7%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 46.5%
Total path chance: 3.3%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
3.7%
Win this match: 50%
Total path chance: 1.9%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 50%
Total path chance: 1.9%
Next: Eliminated
What this page is for
This page is for quick planning.
If you support England, start here to see the cities that are already locked in. Tickets, hotels, and odds are useful later, but the first question is simpler: where might you need to be?