12.9% modelled chance to reach the semifinal

Belgium World Cup 2026 chances.

The route model gives Belgium a 25.9% chance to reach the quarterfinal and a 12.9% chance to reach the semifinal. Start with the confirmed games against Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand, then see which cities open up along each route.

Confirmed schedule

Belgium plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Seattle, Los Angeles, and Vancouver.

Chance ladder

How far could Belgium go?

These are model estimates for route planning. They use the confirmed bracket path plus a static team-strength rating, so they are not live betting odds and they do not yet ingest match results minute by minute.

Knockouts

92.5%

Quarterfinal

25.9%

Semifinal

12.9%

Final

5.9%

Champion

2.6%

Tournament is live

Check today's games before planning Belgium's route.

The current-slate page shows today's listed matches, kickoff times, cities, stadiums, and links back to the team and match pages that matter next.

Route model

How could Belgium get through?

This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.

Win group

44.4%

Finish second

32.7%

Advance as third

15.4%

Out in group

7.5%

Before you book

Turn Belgium's route into a plan.

Belgium is confirmed for Seattle, Los Angeles, and Vancouver. Use those cities as the base case, then keep the knockout rounds flexible until the group table is clearer.

Common questions

Belgium World Cup 2026 FAQ

Where does Belgium play in World Cup 2026?

Belgium plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Seattle, Los Angeles, and Vancouver.

When is Belgium's first World Cup 2026 match?

Belgium's first group match is Belgium vs Egypt on Mon, Jun 15 at Lumen Field in Seattle.

Who does Belgium play in the group stage?

Belgium plays Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand in Group G.

What stadiums does Belgium play at in World Cup 2026?

Belgium's confirmed group-stage stadiums are Lumen Field, SoFi Stadium, and BC Place.

What is Belgium's possible knockout route?

The knockout route depends on whether Belgium wins Group G, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.

Group G

Compare the group

Match-by-match path

Win, lose, where next?

Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.

If group winner

44.4% route probability

starts Seattle

Round of 32 · Match 81

Seattle

Wed, Jul 1 · Lumen Field

Chance here

44.4%

Win this match: 60.8%

Total path chance: 27%

Next: Seattle · Round of 16

Lose this match: 39.2%

Total path chance: 17.4%

Next: Eliminated

Round of 16 · Match 94

Seattle

Mon, Jul 6 · Lumen Field

Chance here

27%

Win this match: 55.3%

Total path chance: 14.9%

Next: Los Angeles · Quarterfinal

Lose this match: 44.7%

Total path chance: 12.1%

Next: Eliminated

Quarterfinal · Match 98

Los Angeles

Fri, Jul 10 · SoFi Stadium

Chance here

14.9%

Win this match: 49.8%

Total path chance: 7.4%

Next: Dallas · Semifinal

Lose this match: 50.2%

Total path chance: 7.5%

Next: Eliminated

Semifinal · Match 101

Dallas

Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium

Chance here

7.4%

Win this match: 46.3%

Total path chance: 3.4%

Next: New York/New Jersey · Final

Lose this match: 53.7%

Total path chance: 4%

Next: Miami · Third Place

Final · Match 104

New York/New Jersey

Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium

Chance here

3.4%

Win this match: 42.8%

Total path chance: 1.5%

Next: World Cup champion

Lose this match: 57.2%

Total path chance: 1.9%

Next: Eliminated

If group runner-up

32.7% route probability

starts Dallas

Round of 32 · Match 86

Dallas

Fri, Jul 3 · AT&T Stadium

Chance here

32.7%

Win this match: 60.8%

Total path chance: 19.9%

Next: Atlanta · Round of 16

Lose this match: 39.2%

Total path chance: 12.8%

Next: Eliminated

Round of 16 · Match 95

Atlanta

Tue, Jul 7 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Chance here

19.9%

Win this match: 55.3%

Total path chance: 11%

Next: Kansas City · Quarterfinal

Lose this match: 44.7%

Total path chance: 8.9%

Next: Eliminated

Quarterfinal · Match 100

Kansas City

Sat, Jul 11 · Arrowhead Stadium

Chance here

11%

Win this match: 49.8%

Total path chance: 5.5%

Next: Atlanta · Semifinal

Lose this match: 50.2%

Total path chance: 5.5%

Next: Eliminated

Semifinal · Match 102

Atlanta

Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Chance here

5.5%

Win this match: 46.3%

Total path chance: 2.5%

Next: New York/New Jersey · Final

Lose this match: 53.7%

Total path chance: 3%

Next: Miami · Third Place

Final · Match 104

New York/New Jersey

Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium

Chance here

2.5%

Win this match: 42.8%

Total path chance: 1.1%

Next: World Cup champion

Lose this match: 57.2%

Total path chance: 1.4%

Next: Eliminated

Model notes

Built for decisions, labelled as an estimate.

Current model version: static team strength plus confirmed schedule and bracket routes, updated July 14, 2026. Use it to compare route risk and travel options. Check official ticket, match, and team sources before booking.