10.5% modelled chance to reach the semifinal
Croatia World Cup 2026 chances.
The route model gives Croatia a 22.2% chance to reach the quarterfinal and a 10.5% chance to reach the semifinal. Start with the confirmed games against England, Panama, and Ghana, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
Croatia plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Dallas, Toronto, and Philadelphia.
Chance ladder
How far could Croatia go?
These are model estimates for route planning. They use the confirmed bracket path plus a static team-strength rating, so they are not live betting odds and they do not yet ingest match results minute by minute.
Knockouts
88.2%
Quarterfinal
22.2%
Semifinal
10.5%
Final
4.6%
Champion
1.8%
Tournament is live
Check today's games before planning Croatia's route.
The current-slate page shows today's listed matches, kickoff times, cities, stadiums, and links back to the team and match pages that matter next.
Route model
How could Croatia get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
40.8%
Finish second
31.7%
Advance as third
15.7%
Out in group
11.8%
Before you book
Turn Croatia's route into a plan.
Croatia is confirmed for Dallas, Toronto, and Philadelphia. Use those cities as the base case, then keep the knockout rounds flexible until the group table is clearer.
Tickets
Use the confirmed cities first, then check FIFA for current ticket information.
Check official ticketsHotels
Start with Dallas, then keep bookings flexible for knockout routes.
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Croatia World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does Croatia play in World Cup 2026?
Croatia plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Dallas, Toronto, and Philadelphia.
When is Croatia's first World Cup 2026 match?
Croatia's first group match is England vs Croatia on Wed, Jun 17 at AT&T Stadium in Dallas.
Who does Croatia play in the group stage?
Croatia plays England, Panama, and Ghana in Group L.
What stadiums does Croatia play at in World Cup 2026?
Croatia's confirmed group-stage stadiums are AT&T Stadium, BMO Field, and Lincoln Financial Field.
What is Croatia's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether Croatia wins Group L, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
40.8% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 80
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 1 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
40.8%
Win this match: 58.1%
Total path chance: 23.7%
Next: Mexico City · Round of 16
Lose this match: 41.9%
Total path chance: 17.1%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 92
Mexico City
Sun, Jul 5 · Estadio Azteca
Chance here
23.7%
Win this match: 52.6%
Total path chance: 12.5%
Next: Miami · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 47.4%
Total path chance: 11.2%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 99
Miami
Sat, Jul 11 · Hard Rock Stadium
Chance here
12.5%
Win this match: 47.1%
Total path chance: 5.9%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 52.9%
Total path chance: 6.6%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
5.9%
Win this match: 43.6%
Total path chance: 2.6%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 56.4%
Total path chance: 3.3%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
2.6%
Win this match: 40.1%
Total path chance: 1%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 59.9%
Total path chance: 1.6%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
31.7% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 84
Toronto
Thu, Jul 2 · BMO Field
Chance here
31.7%
Win this match: 58.1%
Total path chance: 18.4%
Next: Dallas · Round of 16
Lose this match: 41.9%
Total path chance: 13.3%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 93
Dallas
Mon, Jul 6 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
18.4%
Win this match: 52.6%
Total path chance: 9.7%
Next: Los Angeles · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 47.4%
Total path chance: 8.7%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 98
Los Angeles
Fri, Jul 10 · SoFi Stadium
Chance here
9.7%
Win this match: 47.1%
Total path chance: 4.6%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 52.9%
Total path chance: 5.1%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
4.6%
Win this match: 43.6%
Total path chance: 2%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 56.4%
Total path chance: 2.6%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
2%
Win this match: 40.1%
Total path chance: 0.8%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 59.9%
Total path chance: 1.2%
Next: Eliminated
Model notes
Built for decisions, labelled as an estimate.
Current model version: static team strength plus confirmed schedule and bracket routes, updated July 14, 2026. Use it to compare route risk and travel options. Check official ticket, match, and team sources before booking.