22.7% modelled chance to reach the semifinal
France World Cup 2026 chances.
The route model gives France a 38.6% chance to reach the quarterfinal and a 22.7% chance to reach the semifinal. Start with the confirmed games against Senegal, Iraq, and Norway, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
France plays its World Cup 2026 group games in New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Boston.
Chance ladder
How far could France go?
These are model estimates for route planning. They use the confirmed bracket path plus a static team-strength rating, so they are not live betting odds and they do not yet ingest match results minute by minute.
Knockouts
96%
Quarterfinal
38.6%
Semifinal
22.7%
Final
12.6%
Champion
6.6%
Tournament is live
Check today's games before planning France's route.
The current-slate page shows today's listed matches, kickoff times, cities, stadiums, and links back to the team and match pages that matter next.
Route model
How could France get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
57%
Finish second
29%
Advance as third
10%
Out in group
4%
Before you book
Turn France's route into a plan.
France is confirmed for New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Boston. Use those cities as the base case, then keep the knockout rounds flexible until the group table is clearer.
Tickets
Use the confirmed cities first, then check FIFA for current ticket information.
Check official ticketsHotels
Start with New York/New Jersey, then keep bookings flexible for knockout routes.
Compare hotelsRoute alerts
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Request route alertsCommon questions
France World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does France play in World Cup 2026?
France plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Boston.
When is France's first World Cup 2026 match?
France's first group match is France vs Senegal on Tue, Jun 16 at MetLife Stadium in New York/New Jersey.
Who does France play in the group stage?
France plays Senegal, Iraq, and Norway in Group I.
What stadiums does France play at in World Cup 2026?
France's confirmed group-stage stadiums are MetLife Stadium, Lincoln Financial Field, and Gillette Stadium.
What is France's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether France wins Group I, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
57% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 78
New York/New Jersey
Tue, Jun 30 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
57%
Win this match: 69.8%
Total path chance: 39.8%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Round of 16
Lose this match: 30.2%
Total path chance: 17.2%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 91
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 5 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
39.8%
Win this match: 64.3%
Total path chance: 25.6%
Next: Miami · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 35.7%
Total path chance: 14.2%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 99
Miami
Sat, Jul 11 · Hard Rock Stadium
Chance here
25.6%
Win this match: 58.8%
Total path chance: 15.1%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 41.2%
Total path chance: 10.5%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
15.1%
Win this match: 55.3%
Total path chance: 8.4%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 44.7%
Total path chance: 6.7%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
8.4%
Win this match: 51.8%
Total path chance: 4.4%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 48.2%
Total path chance: 4%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
29% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 77
Dallas
Tue, Jun 30 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
29%
Win this match: 69.8%
Total path chance: 20.2%
Next: Philadelphia · Round of 16
Lose this match: 30.2%
Total path chance: 8.8%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 90
Philadelphia
Sat, Jul 4 · Lincoln Financial Field
Chance here
20.2%
Win this match: 64.3%
Total path chance: 13%
Next: Boston · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 35.7%
Total path chance: 7.2%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 97
Boston
Thu, Jul 9 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
13%
Win this match: 58.8%
Total path chance: 7.6%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 41.2%
Total path chance: 5.4%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
7.6%
Win this match: 55.3%
Total path chance: 4.2%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 44.7%
Total path chance: 3.4%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
4.2%
Win this match: 51.8%
Total path chance: 2.2%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 48.2%
Total path chance: 2%
Next: Eliminated
Model notes
Built for decisions, labelled as an estimate.
Current model version: static team strength plus confirmed schedule and bracket routes, updated July 14, 2026. Use it to compare route risk and travel options. Check official ticket, match, and team sources before booking.