78.2% modelled chance to reach the knockout stage
Ecuador World Cup 2026 chances.
The planning model gives Ecuador a 78.2% chance to get out of Group E. Start with the confirmed games against Ivory Coast, Curacao, and Germany, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
Ecuador plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Philadelphia, Kansas City, and New York/New Jersey.
Philadelphia
Sun, Jun 14 · 7:00 PM · vs Ivory Coast
Kansas City
Sat, Jun 20 · 8:00 PM · vs Curacao
New York/New Jersey
Thu, Jun 25 · 4:00 PM · vs Germany
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador
Philadelphia
Lincoln Financial Field
Sun, Jun 14 · 7:00 PM
Ecuador vs Curacao
Kansas City
Arrowhead Stadium
Sat, Jun 20 · 8:00 PM
Ecuador vs Germany
New York/New Jersey
MetLife Stadium
Thu, Jun 25 · 4:00 PM
Route odds
How could Ecuador get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
32.4%
Finish second
29.2%
Advance as third
16.6%
Out in group
21.8%
Next step
Looking for Ecuador tickets?
Use the confirmed Ecuador cities here first, then check FIFA's official ticket page for current availability.
Check ticketsNext step
Want Ecuador route updates?
Tell us you care about Ecuador, and we will shape alerts around the cities that matter next.
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Ecuador World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does Ecuador play in World Cup 2026?
Ecuador plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Philadelphia, Kansas City, and New York/New Jersey.
When is Ecuador's first World Cup 2026 match?
Ecuador's first group match is Ivory Coast vs Ecuador on Sun, Jun 14 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.
Who does Ecuador play in the group stage?
Ecuador plays Ivory Coast, Curacao, and Germany in Group E.
What stadiums does Ecuador play at in World Cup 2026?
Ecuador's confirmed group-stage stadiums are Lincoln Financial Field, Arrowhead Stadium, and MetLife Stadium.
What is Ecuador's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether Ecuador wins Group E, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
32.4% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 75
Boston
Mon, Jun 29 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
32.4%
Win this match: 51.8%
Total path chance: 16.8%
Next: Houston · Round of 16
Lose this match: 48.2%
Total path chance: 15.6%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 89
Houston
Sat, Jul 4 · NRG Stadium
Chance here
16.8%
Win this match: 46.3%
Total path chance: 7.8%
Next: Boston · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 53.7%
Total path chance: 9%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 97
Boston
Thu, Jul 9 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
7.8%
Win this match: 40.8%
Total path chance: 3.2%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 59.2%
Total path chance: 4.6%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
3.2%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 1.2%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 2%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
1.2%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.5%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.7%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
29.2% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 77
Dallas
Tue, Jun 30 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
29.2%
Win this match: 51.8%
Total path chance: 15.1%
Next: Philadelphia · Round of 16
Lose this match: 48.2%
Total path chance: 14.1%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 90
Philadelphia
Sat, Jul 4 · Lincoln Financial Field
Chance here
15.1%
Win this match: 46.3%
Total path chance: 7%
Next: Boston · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 53.7%
Total path chance: 8.1%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 97
Boston
Thu, Jul 9 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
7%
Win this match: 40.8%
Total path chance: 2.9%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 59.2%
Total path chance: 4.1%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
2.9%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 1.1%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 1.8%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
1.1%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.4%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.7%
Next: Eliminated
What this page is for
This page is for quick planning.
If you support Ecuador, start here to see the cities that are already locked in. Tickets, hotels, and odds are useful later, but the first question is simpler: where might you need to be?