6.6% modelled chance to reach the semifinal
Sweden World Cup 2026 chances.
The route model gives Sweden a 15.8% chance to reach the quarterfinal and a 6.6% chance to reach the semifinal. Start with the confirmed games against Tunisia, Netherlands, and Japan, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
Sweden plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Monterrey, Houston, and Dallas.
Chance ladder
How far could Sweden go?
These are model estimates for route planning. They use the confirmed bracket path plus a static team-strength rating, so they are not live betting odds and they do not yet ingest match results minute by minute.
Knockouts
79.6%
Quarterfinal
15.8%
Semifinal
6.6%
Final
2.5%
Champion
1%
Tournament is live
Check today's games before planning Sweden's route.
The current-slate page shows today's listed matches, kickoff times, cities, stadiums, and links back to the team and match pages that matter next.
Route model
How could Sweden get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
33.6%
Finish second
29.6%
Advance as third
16.4%
Out in group
20.4%
Before you book
Turn Sweden's route into a plan.
Sweden is confirmed for Monterrey, Houston, and Dallas. Use those cities as the base case, then keep the knockout rounds flexible until the group table is clearer.
Tickets
Use the confirmed cities first, then check FIFA for current ticket information.
Check official ticketsHotels
Start with Monterrey, then keep bookings flexible for knockout routes.
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Sweden World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does Sweden play in World Cup 2026?
Sweden plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Monterrey, Houston, and Dallas.
When is Sweden's first World Cup 2026 match?
Sweden's first group match is Sweden vs Tunisia on Sun, Jun 14 at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey.
Who does Sweden play in the group stage?
Sweden plays Tunisia, Netherlands, and Japan in Group F.
What stadiums does Sweden play at in World Cup 2026?
Sweden's confirmed group-stage stadiums are Estadio BBVA, NRG Stadium, and AT&T Stadium.
What is Sweden's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether Sweden wins Group F, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
33.6% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 76
Monterrey
Mon, Jun 29 · Estadio BBVA
Chance here
33.6%
Win this match: 52.7%
Total path chance: 17.7%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Round of 16
Lose this match: 47.3%
Total path chance: 15.9%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 91
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 5 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
17.7%
Win this match: 47.2%
Total path chance: 8.4%
Next: Miami · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 52.8%
Total path chance: 9.3%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 99
Miami
Sat, Jul 11 · Hard Rock Stadium
Chance here
8.4%
Win this match: 41.7%
Total path chance: 3.5%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 58.3%
Total path chance: 4.9%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
3.5%
Win this match: 38.2%
Total path chance: 1.3%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 61.8%
Total path chance: 2.2%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
1.3%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.5%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.8%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
29.6% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 74
Houston
Mon, Jun 29 · NRG Stadium
Chance here
29.6%
Win this match: 52.7%
Total path chance: 15.6%
Next: Philadelphia · Round of 16
Lose this match: 47.3%
Total path chance: 14%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 90
Philadelphia
Sat, Jul 4 · Lincoln Financial Field
Chance here
15.6%
Win this match: 47.2%
Total path chance: 7.4%
Next: Boston · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 52.8%
Total path chance: 8.2%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 97
Boston
Thu, Jul 9 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
7.4%
Win this match: 41.7%
Total path chance: 3.1%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 58.3%
Total path chance: 4.3%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
3.1%
Win this match: 38.2%
Total path chance: 1.2%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 61.8%
Total path chance: 1.9%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
1.2%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.5%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.7%
Next: Eliminated
Model notes
Built for decisions, labelled as an estimate.
Current model version: static team strength plus confirmed schedule and bracket routes, updated July 14, 2026. Use it to compare route risk and travel options. Check official ticket, match, and team sources before booking.