66.7% modelled chance to reach the knockout stage
Tunisia World Cup 2026 chances.
The planning model gives Tunisia a 66.7% chance to get out of Group F. Start with the confirmed games against Sweden, Japan, and Netherlands, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
Tunisia plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Monterrey and Kansas City.
Monterrey
Sun, Jun 14 · 10:00 PM · vs Sweden
Monterrey
Sun, Jun 21 · 12:00 AM · vs Japan
Kansas City
Thu, Jun 25 · 7:00 PM · vs Netherlands
Sweden vs Tunisia
Monterrey
Estadio BBVA
Sun, Jun 14 · 10:00 PM
Tunisia vs Japan
Monterrey
Estadio BBVA
Sun, Jun 21 · 12:00 AM
Tunisia vs Netherlands
Kansas City
Arrowhead Stadium
Thu, Jun 25 · 7:00 PM
Route odds
How could Tunisia get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
22.8%
Finish second
26.4%
Advance as third
17.5%
Out in group
33.3%
Next step
Looking for Tunisia tickets?
Use the confirmed Tunisia cities here first, then check FIFA's official ticket page for current availability.
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Want Tunisia route updates?
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Tunisia World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does Tunisia play in World Cup 2026?
Tunisia plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Monterrey and Kansas City.
When is Tunisia's first World Cup 2026 match?
Tunisia's first group match is Sweden vs Tunisia on Sun, Jun 14 at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey.
Who does Tunisia play in the group stage?
Tunisia plays Sweden, Japan, and Netherlands in Group F.
What stadiums does Tunisia play at in World Cup 2026?
Tunisia's confirmed group-stage stadiums are Estadio BBVA, Estadio BBVA, and Arrowhead Stadium.
What is Tunisia's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether Tunisia wins Group F, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
22.8% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 76
Monterrey
Mon, Jun 29 · Estadio BBVA
Chance here
22.8%
Win this match: 44.6%
Total path chance: 10.2%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Round of 16
Lose this match: 55.4%
Total path chance: 12.6%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 91
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 5 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
10.2%
Win this match: 39.1%
Total path chance: 4%
Next: Miami · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 60.9%
Total path chance: 6.2%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 99
Miami
Sat, Jul 11 · Hard Rock Stadium
Chance here
4%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 1.5%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 2.5%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
1.5%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.6%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.9%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
0.6%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.2%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.4%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
26.4% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 74
Houston
Mon, Jun 29 · NRG Stadium
Chance here
26.4%
Win this match: 44.6%
Total path chance: 11.8%
Next: Philadelphia · Round of 16
Lose this match: 55.4%
Total path chance: 14.6%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 90
Philadelphia
Sat, Jul 4 · Lincoln Financial Field
Chance here
11.8%
Win this match: 39.1%
Total path chance: 4.6%
Next: Boston · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 60.9%
Total path chance: 7.2%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 97
Boston
Thu, Jul 9 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
4.6%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 1.7%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 2.9%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
1.7%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.6%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 1.1%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
0.6%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.2%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.4%
Next: Eliminated
What this page is for
This page is for quick planning.
If you support Tunisia, start here to see the cities that are already locked in. Tickets, hotels, and odds are useful later, but the first question is simpler: where might you need to be?