94% modelled chance to reach the knockout stage
Mexico World Cup 2026 chances.
The planning model gives Mexico a 94% chance to get out of Group A. Start with the confirmed games against South Africa, South Korea, and Czechia, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
Mexico plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Mexico City and Guadalajara.
Mexico City
Thu, Jun 11 · 3:00 PM · vs South Africa
Guadalajara
Thu, Jun 18 · 9:00 PM · vs South Korea
Mexico City
Wed, Jun 24 · 9:00 PM · vs Czechia
Mexico vs South Africa
Mexico City
Estadio Azteca
Thu, Jun 11 · 3:00 PM
Mexico vs South Korea
Guadalajara
Estadio Akron
Thu, Jun 18 · 9:00 PM
Czechia vs Mexico
Mexico City
Estadio Azteca
Wed, Jun 24 · 9:00 PM
Route odds
How could Mexico get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
51%
Finish second
30%
Advance as third
13%
Out in group
6%
Next step
Looking for Mexico tickets?
Use the confirmed Mexico cities here first, then check FIFA's official ticket page for current availability.
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Tell us you care about Mexico, and we will shape alerts around the cities that matter next.
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Mexico World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does Mexico play in World Cup 2026?
Mexico plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Mexico City and Guadalajara.
When is Mexico's first World Cup 2026 match?
Mexico's first group match is Mexico vs South Africa on Thu, Jun 11 at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
Who does Mexico play in the group stage?
Mexico plays South Africa, South Korea, and Czechia in Group A.
What stadiums does Mexico play at in World Cup 2026?
Mexico's confirmed group-stage stadiums are Estadio Azteca, Estadio Akron, and Estadio Azteca.
What is Mexico's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether Mexico wins Group A, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
51% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 79
Mexico City
Tue, Jun 30 · Estadio Azteca
Chance here
51%
Win this match: 56.3%
Total path chance: 28.7%
Next: Mexico City · Round of 16
Lose this match: 43.7%
Total path chance: 22.3%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 92
Mexico City
Sun, Jul 5 · Estadio Azteca
Chance here
28.7%
Win this match: 50.8%
Total path chance: 14.6%
Next: Miami · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 49.2%
Total path chance: 14.1%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 99
Miami
Sat, Jul 11 · Hard Rock Stadium
Chance here
14.6%
Win this match: 45.3%
Total path chance: 6.6%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 54.7%
Total path chance: 8%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
6.6%
Win this match: 41.8%
Total path chance: 2.8%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 58.2%
Total path chance: 3.8%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
2.8%
Win this match: 38.3%
Total path chance: 1.1%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 61.7%
Total path chance: 1.7%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
30% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 73
Los Angeles
Sun, Jun 28 · SoFi Stadium
Chance here
30%
Win this match: 56.3%
Total path chance: 16.9%
Next: Houston · Round of 16
Lose this match: 43.7%
Total path chance: 13.1%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 89
Houston
Sat, Jul 4 · NRG Stadium
Chance here
16.9%
Win this match: 50.8%
Total path chance: 8.6%
Next: Boston · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 49.2%
Total path chance: 8.3%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 97
Boston
Thu, Jul 9 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
8.6%
Win this match: 45.3%
Total path chance: 3.9%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 54.7%
Total path chance: 4.7%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
3.9%
Win this match: 41.8%
Total path chance: 1.6%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 58.2%
Total path chance: 2.3%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
1.6%
Win this match: 38.3%
Total path chance: 0.6%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 61.7%
Total path chance: 1%
Next: Eliminated
What this page is for
This page is for quick planning.
If you support Mexico, start here to see the cities that are already locked in. Tickets, hotels, and odds are useful later, but the first question is simpler: where might you need to be?