71% modelled chance to reach the knockout stage
South Korea World Cup 2026 chances.
The planning model gives South Korea a 71% chance to get out of Group A. Start with the confirmed games against Czechia, Mexico, and South Africa, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
South Korea plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Guadalajara and Monterrey.
Guadalajara
Thu, Jun 11 · 10:00 PM · vs Czechia
Guadalajara
Thu, Jun 18 · 9:00 PM · vs Mexico
Monterrey
Wed, Jun 24 · 9:00 PM · vs South Africa
South Korea vs Czechia
Guadalajara
Estadio Akron
Thu, Jun 11 · 10:00 PM
Mexico vs South Korea
Guadalajara
Estadio Akron
Thu, Jun 18 · 9:00 PM
South Africa vs South Korea
Monterrey
Estadio BBVA
Wed, Jun 24 · 9:00 PM
Route odds
How could South Korea get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
26.4%
Finish second
27.5%
Advance as third
17.2%
Out in group
29%
Next step
Looking for South Korea tickets?
Use the confirmed South Korea cities here first, then check FIFA's official ticket page for current availability.
Check ticketsNext step
Want South Korea route updates?
Tell us you care about South Korea, and we will shape alerts around the cities that matter next.
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South Korea World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does South Korea play in World Cup 2026?
South Korea plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Guadalajara and Monterrey.
When is South Korea's first World Cup 2026 match?
South Korea's first group match is South Korea vs Czechia on Thu, Jun 11 at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara.
Who does South Korea play in the group stage?
South Korea plays Czechia, Mexico, and South Africa in Group A.
What stadiums does South Korea play at in World Cup 2026?
South Korea's confirmed group-stage stadiums are Estadio Akron, Estadio Akron, and Estadio BBVA.
What is South Korea's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether South Korea wins Group A, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
26.4% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 79
Mexico City
Tue, Jun 30 · Estadio Azteca
Chance here
26.4%
Win this match: 47.3%
Total path chance: 12.5%
Next: Mexico City · Round of 16
Lose this match: 52.7%
Total path chance: 13.9%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 92
Mexico City
Sun, Jul 5 · Estadio Azteca
Chance here
12.5%
Win this match: 41.8%
Total path chance: 5.2%
Next: Miami · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 58.2%
Total path chance: 7.3%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 99
Miami
Sat, Jul 11 · Hard Rock Stadium
Chance here
5.2%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 2%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 3.2%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
2%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.8%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 1.2%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
0.8%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.3%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.5%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
27.5% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 73
Los Angeles
Sun, Jun 28 · SoFi Stadium
Chance here
27.5%
Win this match: 47.3%
Total path chance: 13%
Next: Houston · Round of 16
Lose this match: 52.7%
Total path chance: 14.5%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 89
Houston
Sat, Jul 4 · NRG Stadium
Chance here
13%
Win this match: 41.8%
Total path chance: 5.4%
Next: Boston · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 58.2%
Total path chance: 7.6%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 97
Boston
Thu, Jul 9 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
5.4%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 2.1%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 3.3%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
2.1%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.8%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 1.3%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
0.8%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.3%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.5%
Next: Eliminated
What this page is for
This page is for quick planning.
If you support South Korea, start here to see the cities that are already locked in. Tickets, hotels, and odds are useful later, but the first question is simpler: where might you need to be?