4.1% modelled chance to reach the semifinal
South Korea World Cup 2026 chances.
The route model gives South Korea a 10.6% chance to reach the quarterfinal and a 4.1% chance to reach the semifinal. Start with the confirmed games against Czechia, Mexico, and South Africa, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
South Korea plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Guadalajara and Monterrey.
Chance ladder
How far could South Korea go?
These are model estimates for route planning. They use the confirmed bracket path plus a static team-strength rating, so they are not live betting odds and they do not yet ingest match results minute by minute.
Knockouts
71%
Quarterfinal
10.6%
Semifinal
4.1%
Final
1.6%
Champion
0.6%
Tournament is live
Check today's games before planning South Korea's route.
The current-slate page shows today's listed matches, kickoff times, cities, stadiums, and links back to the team and match pages that matter next.
Route model
How could South Korea get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
26.4%
Finish second
27.5%
Advance as third
17.2%
Out in group
29%
Before you book
Turn South Korea's route into a plan.
South Korea is confirmed for Guadalajara and Monterrey. Use those cities as the base case, then keep the knockout rounds flexible until the group table is clearer.
Tickets
Use the confirmed cities first, then check FIFA for current ticket information.
Check official ticketsHotels
Start with Guadalajara, then keep bookings flexible for knockout routes.
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South Korea World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does South Korea play in World Cup 2026?
South Korea plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Guadalajara and Monterrey.
When is South Korea's first World Cup 2026 match?
South Korea's first group match is South Korea vs Czechia on Thu, Jun 11 at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara.
Who does South Korea play in the group stage?
South Korea plays Czechia, Mexico, and South Africa in Group A.
What stadiums does South Korea play at in World Cup 2026?
South Korea's confirmed group-stage stadiums are Estadio Akron, Estadio Akron, and Estadio BBVA.
What is South Korea's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether South Korea wins Group A, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
26.4% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 79
Mexico City
Tue, Jun 30 · Estadio Azteca
Chance here
26.4%
Win this match: 47.3%
Total path chance: 12.5%
Next: Mexico City · Round of 16
Lose this match: 52.7%
Total path chance: 13.9%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 92
Mexico City
Sun, Jul 5 · Estadio Azteca
Chance here
12.5%
Win this match: 41.8%
Total path chance: 5.2%
Next: Miami · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 58.2%
Total path chance: 7.3%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 99
Miami
Sat, Jul 11 · Hard Rock Stadium
Chance here
5.2%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 2%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 3.2%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
2%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.8%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 1.2%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
0.8%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.3%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.5%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
27.5% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 73
Los Angeles
Sun, Jun 28 · SoFi Stadium
Chance here
27.5%
Win this match: 47.3%
Total path chance: 13%
Next: Houston · Round of 16
Lose this match: 52.7%
Total path chance: 14.5%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 89
Houston
Sat, Jul 4 · NRG Stadium
Chance here
13%
Win this match: 41.8%
Total path chance: 5.4%
Next: Boston · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 58.2%
Total path chance: 7.6%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 97
Boston
Thu, Jul 9 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
5.4%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 2.1%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 3.3%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
2.1%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.8%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 1.3%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
0.8%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.3%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.5%
Next: Eliminated
Model notes
Built for decisions, labelled as an estimate.
Current model version: static team strength plus confirmed schedule and bracket routes, updated July 14, 2026. Use it to compare route risk and travel options. Check official ticket, match, and team sources before booking.