12.1% modelled chance to reach the semifinal
Uruguay World Cup 2026 chances.
The route model gives Uruguay a 24.7% chance to reach the quarterfinal and a 12.1% chance to reach the semifinal. Start with the confirmed games against Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde, and Spain, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
Uruguay plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Miami and Guadalajara.
Chance ladder
How far could Uruguay go?
These are model estimates for route planning. They use the confirmed bracket path plus a static team-strength rating, so they are not live betting odds and they do not yet ingest match results minute by minute.
Knockouts
91%
Quarterfinal
24.7%
Semifinal
12.1%
Final
5.5%
Champion
2.3%
Tournament is live
Check today's games before planning Uruguay's route.
The current-slate page shows today's listed matches, kickoff times, cities, stadiums, and links back to the team and match pages that matter next.
Route model
How could Uruguay get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
43.2%
Finish second
32.4%
Advance as third
15.5%
Out in group
9%
Before you book
Turn Uruguay's route into a plan.
Uruguay is confirmed for Miami and Guadalajara. Use those cities as the base case, then keep the knockout rounds flexible until the group table is clearer.
Tickets
Use the confirmed cities first, then check FIFA for current ticket information.
Check official ticketsHotels
Start with Miami, then keep bookings flexible for knockout routes.
Compare hotelsRoute alerts
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Request route alertsCommon questions
Uruguay World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does Uruguay play in World Cup 2026?
Uruguay plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Miami and Guadalajara.
When is Uruguay's first World Cup 2026 match?
Uruguay's first group match is Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay on Mon, Jun 15 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
Who does Uruguay play in the group stage?
Uruguay plays Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde, and Spain in Group H.
What stadiums does Uruguay play at in World Cup 2026?
Uruguay's confirmed group-stage stadiums are Hard Rock Stadium, Hard Rock Stadium, and Estadio Akron.
What is Uruguay's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether Uruguay wins Group H, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
43.2% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 83
Los Angeles
Thu, Jul 2 · SoFi Stadium
Chance here
43.2%
Win this match: 59.9%
Total path chance: 25.9%
Next: Dallas · Round of 16
Lose this match: 40.1%
Total path chance: 17.3%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 93
Dallas
Mon, Jul 6 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
25.9%
Win this match: 54.4%
Total path chance: 14.1%
Next: Los Angeles · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 45.6%
Total path chance: 11.8%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 98
Los Angeles
Fri, Jul 10 · SoFi Stadium
Chance here
14.1%
Win this match: 48.9%
Total path chance: 6.9%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 51.1%
Total path chance: 7.2%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
6.9%
Win this match: 45.4%
Total path chance: 3.1%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 54.6%
Total path chance: 3.8%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
3.1%
Win this match: 41.9%
Total path chance: 1.3%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 58.1%
Total path chance: 1.8%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
32.4% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 87
Miami
Fri, Jul 3 · Hard Rock Stadium
Chance here
32.4%
Win this match: 59.9%
Total path chance: 19.4%
Next: Vancouver · Round of 16
Lose this match: 40.1%
Total path chance: 13%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 96
Vancouver
Tue, Jul 7 · BC Place
Chance here
19.4%
Win this match: 54.4%
Total path chance: 10.6%
Next: Kansas City · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 45.6%
Total path chance: 8.8%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 100
Kansas City
Sat, Jul 11 · Arrowhead Stadium
Chance here
10.6%
Win this match: 48.9%
Total path chance: 5.2%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 51.1%
Total path chance: 5.4%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
5.2%
Win this match: 45.4%
Total path chance: 2.4%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 54.6%
Total path chance: 2.8%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
2.4%
Win this match: 41.9%
Total path chance: 1%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 58.1%
Total path chance: 1.4%
Next: Eliminated
Model notes
Built for decisions, labelled as an estimate.
Current model version: static team strength plus confirmed schedule and bracket routes, updated July 14, 2026. Use it to compare route risk and travel options. Check official ticket, match, and team sources before booking.