92% modelled chance to reach the knockout stage
USA World Cup 2026 chances.
The planning model gives USA a 92% chance to get out of Group D. Start with the confirmed games against Paraguay, Australia, and Turkiye, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
USA plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Los Angeles and Seattle.
Los Angeles
Fri, Jun 12 · 9:00 PM · vs Paraguay
Seattle
Fri, Jun 19 · 3:00 PM · vs Australia
Los Angeles
Thu, Jun 25 · 10:00 PM · vs Turkiye
USA vs Paraguay
Los Angeles
SoFi Stadium
Fri, Jun 12 · 9:00 PM
USA vs Australia
Seattle
Lumen Field
Fri, Jun 19 · 3:00 PM
Turkiye vs USA
Los Angeles
SoFi Stadium
Thu, Jun 25 · 10:00 PM
Route odds
How could USA get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
42%
Finish second
33%
Advance as third
17%
Out in group
8%
Next step
Looking for USA tickets?
Use the confirmed USA cities here first, then check FIFA's official ticket page for current availability.
Check ticketsNext step
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Tell us you care about USA, and we will shape alerts around the cities that matter next.
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USA World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does USA play in World Cup 2026?
USA plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Los Angeles and Seattle.
When is USA's first World Cup 2026 match?
USA's first group match is USA vs Paraguay on Fri, Jun 12 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.
Who does USA play in the group stage?
USA plays Paraguay, Australia, and Turkiye in Group D.
What stadiums does USA play at in World Cup 2026?
USA's confirmed group-stage stadiums are SoFi Stadium, Lumen Field, and SoFi Stadium.
What is USA's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether USA wins Group D, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
42% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 82
San Francisco Bay Area
Wed, Jul 1 · Levi's Stadium
Chance here
42%
Win this match: 55.4%
Total path chance: 23.3%
Next: Seattle · Round of 16
Lose this match: 44.6%
Total path chance: 18.7%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 94
Seattle
Mon, Jul 6 · Lumen Field
Chance here
23.3%
Win this match: 49.9%
Total path chance: 11.6%
Next: Los Angeles · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 50.1%
Total path chance: 11.7%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 98
Los Angeles
Fri, Jul 10 · SoFi Stadium
Chance here
11.6%
Win this match: 44.4%
Total path chance: 5.2%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 55.6%
Total path chance: 6.4%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
5.2%
Win this match: 40.9%
Total path chance: 2.1%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 59.1%
Total path chance: 3.1%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
2.1%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.8%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 1.3%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
33% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 86
Dallas
Fri, Jul 3 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
33%
Win this match: 55.4%
Total path chance: 18.3%
Next: Atlanta · Round of 16
Lose this match: 44.6%
Total path chance: 14.7%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 95
Atlanta
Tue, Jul 7 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
18.3%
Win this match: 49.9%
Total path chance: 9.1%
Next: Kansas City · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 50.1%
Total path chance: 9.2%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 100
Kansas City
Sat, Jul 11 · Arrowhead Stadium
Chance here
9.1%
Win this match: 44.4%
Total path chance: 4%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 55.6%
Total path chance: 5.1%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
4%
Win this match: 40.9%
Total path chance: 1.6%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 59.1%
Total path chance: 2.4%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
1.6%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.6%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 1%
Next: Eliminated
What this page is for
This page is for quick planning.
If you support USA, start here to see the cities that are already locked in. Tickets, hotels, and odds are useful later, but the first question is simpler: where might you need to be?