8.4% modelled chance to reach the semifinal

Morocco World Cup 2026 chances.

The route model gives Morocco a 18.8% chance to reach the quarterfinal and a 8.4% chance to reach the semifinal. Start with the confirmed games against Brazil, Scotland, and Haiti, then see which cities open up along each route.

Confirmed schedule

Morocco plays its World Cup 2026 group games in New York/New Jersey, Boston, and Atlanta.

Chance ladder

How far could Morocco go?

These are model estimates for route planning. They use the confirmed bracket path plus a static team-strength rating, so they are not live betting odds and they do not yet ingest match results minute by minute.

Knockouts

83.9%

Quarterfinal

18.8%

Semifinal

8.4%

Final

3.5%

Champion

1.3%

Tournament is live

Check today's games before planning Morocco's route.

The current-slate page shows today's listed matches, kickoff times, cities, stadiums, and links back to the team and match pages that matter next.

Route model

How could Morocco get through?

This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.

Win group

37.2%

Finish second

30.6%

Advance as third

16.1%

Out in group

16.1%

Before you book

Turn Morocco's route into a plan.

Morocco is confirmed for New York/New Jersey, Boston, and Atlanta. Use those cities as the base case, then keep the knockout rounds flexible until the group table is clearer.

Common questions

Morocco World Cup 2026 FAQ

Where does Morocco play in World Cup 2026?

Morocco plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in New York/New Jersey, Boston, and Atlanta.

When is Morocco's first World Cup 2026 match?

Morocco's first group match is Brazil vs Morocco on Sat, Jun 13 at MetLife Stadium in New York/New Jersey.

Who does Morocco play in the group stage?

Morocco plays Brazil, Scotland, and Haiti in Group C.

What stadiums does Morocco play at in World Cup 2026?

Morocco's confirmed group-stage stadiums are MetLife Stadium, Gillette Stadium, and Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

What is Morocco's possible knockout route?

The knockout route depends on whether Morocco wins Group C, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.

Group C

Compare the group

Match-by-match path

Win, lose, where next?

Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.

If group winner

37.2% route probability

starts Houston

Round of 32 · Match 74

Houston

Mon, Jun 29 · NRG Stadium

Chance here

37.2%

Win this match: 55.4%

Total path chance: 20.6%

Next: Philadelphia · Round of 16

Lose this match: 44.6%

Total path chance: 16.6%

Next: Eliminated

Round of 16 · Match 90

Philadelphia

Sat, Jul 4 · Lincoln Financial Field

Chance here

20.6%

Win this match: 49.9%

Total path chance: 10.3%

Next: Boston · Quarterfinal

Lose this match: 50.1%

Total path chance: 10.3%

Next: Eliminated

Quarterfinal · Match 97

Boston

Thu, Jul 9 · Gillette Stadium

Chance here

10.3%

Win this match: 44.4%

Total path chance: 4.6%

Next: Dallas · Semifinal

Lose this match: 55.6%

Total path chance: 5.7%

Next: Eliminated

Semifinal · Match 101

Dallas

Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium

Chance here

4.6%

Win this match: 40.9%

Total path chance: 1.9%

Next: New York/New Jersey · Final

Lose this match: 59.1%

Total path chance: 2.7%

Next: Miami · Third Place

Final · Match 104

New York/New Jersey

Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium

Chance here

1.9%

Win this match: 38%

Total path chance: 0.7%

Next: World Cup champion

Lose this match: 62%

Total path chance: 1.2%

Next: Eliminated

If group runner-up

30.6% route probability

starts Monterrey

Round of 32 · Match 76

Monterrey

Mon, Jun 29 · Estadio BBVA

Chance here

30.6%

Win this match: 55.4%

Total path chance: 17%

Next: New York/New Jersey · Round of 16

Lose this match: 44.6%

Total path chance: 13.6%

Next: Eliminated

Round of 16 · Match 91

New York/New Jersey

Sun, Jul 5 · MetLife Stadium

Chance here

17%

Win this match: 49.9%

Total path chance: 8.5%

Next: Miami · Quarterfinal

Lose this match: 50.1%

Total path chance: 8.5%

Next: Eliminated

Quarterfinal · Match 99

Miami

Sat, Jul 11 · Hard Rock Stadium

Chance here

8.5%

Win this match: 44.4%

Total path chance: 3.8%

Next: Atlanta · Semifinal

Lose this match: 55.6%

Total path chance: 4.7%

Next: Eliminated

Semifinal · Match 102

Atlanta

Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Chance here

3.8%

Win this match: 40.9%

Total path chance: 1.6%

Next: New York/New Jersey · Final

Lose this match: 59.1%

Total path chance: 2.2%

Next: Miami · Third Place

Final · Match 104

New York/New Jersey

Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium

Chance here

1.6%

Win this match: 38%

Total path chance: 0.6%

Next: World Cup champion

Lose this match: 62%

Total path chance: 1%

Next: Eliminated

Model notes

Built for decisions, labelled as an estimate.

Current model version: static team strength plus confirmed schedule and bracket routes, updated July 14, 2026. Use it to compare route risk and travel options. Check official ticket, match, and team sources before booking.