75.3% modelled chance to reach the knockout stage
Australia World Cup 2026 chances.
The planning model gives Australia a 75.3% chance to get out of Group D. Start with the confirmed games against Turkiye, USA, and Paraguay, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
Australia plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Vancouver, Seattle, and San Francisco Bay Area.
Vancouver
Sun, Jun 14 · 12:00 AM · vs Turkiye
Seattle
Fri, Jun 19 · 3:00 PM · vs USA
San Francisco Bay Area
Thu, Jun 25 · 10:00 PM · vs Paraguay
Australia vs Turkiye
Vancouver
BC Place
Sun, Jun 14 · 12:00 AM
USA vs Australia
Seattle
Lumen Field
Fri, Jun 19 · 3:00 PM
Paraguay vs Australia
San Francisco Bay Area
Levi's Stadium
Thu, Jun 25 · 10:00 PM
Route odds
How could Australia get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
30%
Finish second
28.5%
Advance as third
16.8%
Out in group
24.7%
Next step
Looking for Australia tickets?
Use the confirmed Australia cities here first, then check FIFA's official ticket page for current availability.
Check ticketsNext step
Want Australia route updates?
Tell us you care about Australia, and we will shape alerts around the cities that matter next.
Send me updatesCommon questions
Australia World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does Australia play in World Cup 2026?
Australia plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Vancouver, Seattle, and San Francisco Bay Area.
When is Australia's first World Cup 2026 match?
Australia's first group match is Australia vs Turkiye on Sun, Jun 14 at BC Place in Vancouver.
Who does Australia play in the group stage?
Australia plays Turkiye, USA, and Paraguay in Group D.
What stadiums does Australia play at in World Cup 2026?
Australia's confirmed group-stage stadiums are BC Place, Lumen Field, and Levi's Stadium.
What is Australia's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether Australia wins Group D, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
30% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 82
San Francisco Bay Area
Wed, Jul 1 · Levi's Stadium
Chance here
30%
Win this match: 50%
Total path chance: 15%
Next: Seattle · Round of 16
Lose this match: 50%
Total path chance: 15%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 94
Seattle
Mon, Jul 6 · Lumen Field
Chance here
15%
Win this match: 44.5%
Total path chance: 6.7%
Next: Los Angeles · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 55.5%
Total path chance: 8.3%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 98
Los Angeles
Fri, Jul 10 · SoFi Stadium
Chance here
6.7%
Win this match: 39%
Total path chance: 2.6%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 61%
Total path chance: 4.1%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
2.6%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 1%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 1.6%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
1%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.4%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.6%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
28.5% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 86
Dallas
Fri, Jul 3 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
28.5%
Win this match: 50%
Total path chance: 14.3%
Next: Atlanta · Round of 16
Lose this match: 50%
Total path chance: 14.3%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 95
Atlanta
Tue, Jul 7 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
14.3%
Win this match: 44.5%
Total path chance: 6.4%
Next: Kansas City · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 55.5%
Total path chance: 7.9%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 100
Kansas City
Sat, Jul 11 · Arrowhead Stadium
Chance here
6.4%
Win this match: 39%
Total path chance: 2.5%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 61%
Total path chance: 3.9%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
2.5%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 1%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 1.6%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
1%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.4%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.6%
Next: Eliminated
What this page is for
This page is for quick planning.
If you support Australia, start here to see the cities that are already locked in. Tickets, hotels, and odds are useful later, but the first question is simpler: where might you need to be?