95% modelled chance to reach the knockout stage
Brazil World Cup 2026 chances.
The planning model gives Brazil a 95% chance to get out of Group C. Start with the confirmed games against Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
Brazil plays its World Cup 2026 group games in New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Miami.
New York/New Jersey
Sat, Jun 13 · 6:00 PM · vs Morocco
Philadelphia
Fri, Jun 19 · 8:30 PM · vs Haiti
Miami
Wed, Jun 24 · 6:00 PM · vs Scotland
Brazil vs Morocco
New York/New Jersey
MetLife Stadium
Sat, Jun 13 · 6:00 PM
Brazil vs Haiti
Philadelphia
Lincoln Financial Field
Fri, Jun 19 · 8:30 PM
Scotland vs Brazil
Miami
Hard Rock Stadium
Wed, Jun 24 · 6:00 PM
Route odds
How could Brazil get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
55%
Finish second
30%
Advance as third
10%
Out in group
5%
Next step
Looking for Brazil tickets?
Use the confirmed Brazil cities here first, then check FIFA's official ticket page for current availability.
Check ticketsNext step
Want Brazil route updates?
Tell us you care about Brazil, and we will shape alerts around the cities that matter next.
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Brazil World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does Brazil play in World Cup 2026?
Brazil plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Miami.
When is Brazil's first World Cup 2026 match?
Brazil's first group match is Brazil vs Morocco on Sat, Jun 13 at MetLife Stadium in New York/New Jersey.
Who does Brazil play in the group stage?
Brazil plays Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland in Group C.
What stadiums does Brazil play at in World Cup 2026?
Brazil's confirmed group-stage stadiums are MetLife Stadium, Lincoln Financial Field, and Hard Rock Stadium.
What is Brazil's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether Brazil wins Group C, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
55% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 74
Houston
Mon, Jun 29 · NRG Stadium
Chance here
55%
Win this match: 70.7%
Total path chance: 38.9%
Next: Philadelphia · Round of 16
Lose this match: 29.3%
Total path chance: 16.1%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 90
Philadelphia
Sat, Jul 4 · Lincoln Financial Field
Chance here
38.9%
Win this match: 65.2%
Total path chance: 25.4%
Next: Boston · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 34.8%
Total path chance: 13.5%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 97
Boston
Thu, Jul 9 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
25.4%
Win this match: 59.7%
Total path chance: 15.2%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 40.3%
Total path chance: 10.2%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
15.2%
Win this match: 56.2%
Total path chance: 8.5%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 43.8%
Total path chance: 6.7%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
8.5%
Win this match: 52.7%
Total path chance: 4.5%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 47.3%
Total path chance: 4%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
30% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 76
Monterrey
Mon, Jun 29 · Estadio BBVA
Chance here
30%
Win this match: 70.7%
Total path chance: 21.2%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Round of 16
Lose this match: 29.3%
Total path chance: 8.8%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 91
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 5 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
21.2%
Win this match: 65.2%
Total path chance: 13.8%
Next: Miami · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 34.8%
Total path chance: 7.4%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 99
Miami
Sat, Jul 11 · Hard Rock Stadium
Chance here
13.8%
Win this match: 59.7%
Total path chance: 8.2%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 40.3%
Total path chance: 5.6%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
8.2%
Win this match: 56.2%
Total path chance: 4.6%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 43.8%
Total path chance: 3.6%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
4.6%
Win this match: 52.7%
Total path chance: 2.4%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 47.3%
Total path chance: 2.2%
Next: Eliminated
What this page is for
This page is for quick planning.
If you support Brazil, start here to see the cities that are already locked in. Tickets, hotels, and odds are useful later, but the first question is simpler: where might you need to be?