95% modelled chance to reach the knockout stage

Brazil World Cup 2026 chances.

The planning model gives Brazil a 95% chance to get out of Group C. Start with the confirmed games against Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland, then see which cities open up along each route.

Confirmed schedule

Brazil plays its World Cup 2026 group games in New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Miami.

New York/New Jersey

Sat, Jun 13 · 6:00 PM · vs Morocco

Philadelphia

Fri, Jun 19 · 8:30 PM · vs Haiti

Miami

Wed, Jun 24 · 6:00 PM · vs Scotland

Match 6USA

Brazil vs Morocco

New York/New Jersey

MetLife Stadium

Sat, Jun 13 · 6:00 PM

Match 31USA

Brazil vs Haiti

Philadelphia

Lincoln Financial Field

Fri, Jun 19 · 8:30 PM

Match 51USA

Scotland vs Brazil

Miami

Hard Rock Stadium

Wed, Jun 24 · 6:00 PM

Route odds

How could Brazil get through?

This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.

Win group

55%

Finish second

30%

Advance as third

10%

Out in group

5%

Next step

Looking for Brazil tickets?

Use the confirmed Brazil cities here first, then check FIFA's official ticket page for current availability.

Check tickets

Next step

Want Brazil route updates?

Tell us you care about Brazil, and we will shape alerts around the cities that matter next.

Send me updates

Common questions

Brazil World Cup 2026 FAQ

Where does Brazil play in World Cup 2026?

Brazil plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Miami.

When is Brazil's first World Cup 2026 match?

Brazil's first group match is Brazil vs Morocco on Sat, Jun 13 at MetLife Stadium in New York/New Jersey.

Who does Brazil play in the group stage?

Brazil plays Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland in Group C.

What stadiums does Brazil play at in World Cup 2026?

Brazil's confirmed group-stage stadiums are MetLife Stadium, Lincoln Financial Field, and Hard Rock Stadium.

What is Brazil's possible knockout route?

The knockout route depends on whether Brazil wins Group C, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.

Group C

Compare the group

Match-by-match path

Win, lose, where next?

Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.

If group winner

55% route probability

starts Houston

Round of 32 · Match 74

Houston

Mon, Jun 29 · NRG Stadium

Chance here

55%

Win this match: 70.7%

Total path chance: 38.9%

Next: Philadelphia · Round of 16

Lose this match: 29.3%

Total path chance: 16.1%

Next: Eliminated

Round of 16 · Match 90

Philadelphia

Sat, Jul 4 · Lincoln Financial Field

Chance here

38.9%

Win this match: 65.2%

Total path chance: 25.4%

Next: Boston · Quarterfinal

Lose this match: 34.8%

Total path chance: 13.5%

Next: Eliminated

Quarterfinal · Match 97

Boston

Thu, Jul 9 · Gillette Stadium

Chance here

25.4%

Win this match: 59.7%

Total path chance: 15.2%

Next: Dallas · Semifinal

Lose this match: 40.3%

Total path chance: 10.2%

Next: Eliminated

Semifinal · Match 101

Dallas

Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium

Chance here

15.2%

Win this match: 56.2%

Total path chance: 8.5%

Next: New York/New Jersey · Final

Lose this match: 43.8%

Total path chance: 6.7%

Next: Miami · Third Place

Final · Match 104

New York/New Jersey

Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium

Chance here

8.5%

Win this match: 52.7%

Total path chance: 4.5%

Next: World Cup champion

Lose this match: 47.3%

Total path chance: 4%

Next: Eliminated

If group runner-up

30% route probability

starts Monterrey

Round of 32 · Match 76

Monterrey

Mon, Jun 29 · Estadio BBVA

Chance here

30%

Win this match: 70.7%

Total path chance: 21.2%

Next: New York/New Jersey · Round of 16

Lose this match: 29.3%

Total path chance: 8.8%

Next: Eliminated

Round of 16 · Match 91

New York/New Jersey

Sun, Jul 5 · MetLife Stadium

Chance here

21.2%

Win this match: 65.2%

Total path chance: 13.8%

Next: Miami · Quarterfinal

Lose this match: 34.8%

Total path chance: 7.4%

Next: Eliminated

Quarterfinal · Match 99

Miami

Sat, Jul 11 · Hard Rock Stadium

Chance here

13.8%

Win this match: 59.7%

Total path chance: 8.2%

Next: Atlanta · Semifinal

Lose this match: 40.3%

Total path chance: 5.6%

Next: Eliminated

Semifinal · Match 102

Atlanta

Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Chance here

8.2%

Win this match: 56.2%

Total path chance: 4.6%

Next: New York/New Jersey · Final

Lose this match: 43.8%

Total path chance: 3.6%

Next: Miami · Third Place

Final · Match 104

New York/New Jersey

Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium

Chance here

4.6%

Win this match: 52.7%

Total path chance: 2.4%

Next: World Cup champion

Lose this match: 47.3%

Total path chance: 2.2%

Next: Eliminated

What this page is for

This page is for quick planning.

If you support Brazil, start here to see the cities that are already locked in. Tickets, hotels, and odds are useful later, but the first question is simpler: where might you need to be?