2% modelled chance to reach the semifinal
New Zealand World Cup 2026 chances.
The route model gives New Zealand a 5.3% chance to reach the quarterfinal and a 2% chance to reach the semifinal. Start with the confirmed games against Iran, Egypt, and Belgium, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
New Zealand plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Los Angeles and Vancouver.
Chance ladder
How far could New Zealand go?
These are model estimates for route planning. They use the confirmed bracket path plus a static team-strength rating, so they are not live betting odds and they do not yet ingest match results minute by minute.
Knockouts
55.3%
Quarterfinal
5.3%
Semifinal
2%
Final
0.8%
Champion
0.3%
Tournament is live
Check today's games before planning New Zealand's route.
The current-slate page shows today's listed matches, kickoff times, cities, stadiums, and links back to the team and match pages that matter next.
Route model
How could New Zealand get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
13.2%
Finish second
23.6%
Advance as third
18.5%
Out in group
44.7%
Before you book
Turn New Zealand's route into a plan.
New Zealand is confirmed for Los Angeles and Vancouver. Use those cities as the base case, then keep the knockout rounds flexible until the group table is clearer.
Tickets
Use the confirmed cities first, then check FIFA for current ticket information.
Check official ticketsHotels
Start with Los Angeles, then keep bookings flexible for knockout routes.
Compare hotelsRoute alerts
Tell us the team you care about so we can shape useful city and route updates.
Request route alertsCommon questions
New Zealand World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does New Zealand play in World Cup 2026?
New Zealand plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Los Angeles and Vancouver.
When is New Zealand's first World Cup 2026 match?
New Zealand's first group match is Iran vs New Zealand on Mon, Jun 15 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.
Who does New Zealand play in the group stage?
New Zealand plays Iran, Egypt, and Belgium in Group G.
What stadiums does New Zealand play at in World Cup 2026?
New Zealand's confirmed group-stage stadiums are SoFi Stadium, BC Place, and BC Place.
What is New Zealand's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether New Zealand wins Group G, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
13.2% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 81
Seattle
Wed, Jul 1 · Lumen Field
Chance here
13.2%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 5%
Next: Seattle · Round of 16
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 8.2%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 94
Seattle
Mon, Jul 6 · Lumen Field
Chance here
5%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 1.9%
Next: Los Angeles · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 3.1%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 98
Los Angeles
Fri, Jul 10 · SoFi Stadium
Chance here
1.9%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.7%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 1.2%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
0.7%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.3%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.4%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
0.3%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.1%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.2%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
23.6% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 86
Dallas
Fri, Jul 3 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
23.6%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 9%
Next: Atlanta · Round of 16
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 14.6%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 95
Atlanta
Tue, Jul 7 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
9%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 3.4%
Next: Kansas City · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 5.6%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 100
Kansas City
Sat, Jul 11 · Arrowhead Stadium
Chance here
3.4%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 1.3%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 2.1%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
1.3%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.5%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.8%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
0.5%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.2%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.3%
Next: Eliminated
Model notes
Built for decisions, labelled as an estimate.
Current model version: static team strength plus confirmed schedule and bracket routes, updated July 14, 2026. Use it to compare route risk and travel options. Check official ticket, match, and team sources before booking.