58.1% modelled chance to reach the knockout stage
Iraq World Cup 2026 chances.
The planning model gives Iraq a 58.1% chance to get out of Group I. Start with the confirmed games against Norway, France, and Senegal, then see which cities open up along each route.
Confirmed schedule
Iraq plays its World Cup 2026 group games in Boston, Philadelphia, and Toronto.
Boston
Tue, Jun 16 · 6:00 PM · vs Norway
Philadelphia
Mon, Jun 22 · 5:00 PM · vs France
Toronto
Fri, Jun 26 · 3:00 PM · vs Senegal
Iraq vs Norway
Boston
Gillette Stadium
Tue, Jun 16 · 6:00 PM
France vs Iraq
Philadelphia
Lincoln Financial Field
Mon, Jun 22 · 5:00 PM
Senegal vs Iraq
Toronto
BMO Field
Fri, Jun 26 · 3:00 PM
Route odds
How could Iraq get through?
This is a simple model built on top of the official bracket. Treat it as a planning guide, not a prediction that knows the future.
Win group
15.6%
Finish second
24.3%
Advance as third
18.2%
Out in group
41.9%
Next step
Looking for Iraq tickets?
Use the confirmed Iraq cities here first, then check FIFA's official ticket page for current availability.
Check ticketsNext step
Want Iraq route updates?
Tell us you care about Iraq, and we will shape alerts around the cities that matter next.
Send me updatesCommon questions
Iraq World Cup 2026 FAQ
Where does Iraq play in World Cup 2026?
Iraq plays its confirmed World Cup 2026 group games in Boston, Philadelphia, and Toronto.
When is Iraq's first World Cup 2026 match?
Iraq's first group match is Iraq vs Norway on Tue, Jun 16 at Gillette Stadium in Boston.
Who does Iraq play in the group stage?
Iraq plays Norway, France, and Senegal in Group I.
What stadiums does Iraq play at in World Cup 2026?
Iraq's confirmed group-stage stadiums are Gillette Stadium, Lincoln Financial Field, and BMO Field.
What is Iraq's possible knockout route?
The knockout route depends on whether Iraq wins Group I, finishes second, or advances as a third-place team. This page maps the likely cities and matches for each route.
Match-by-match path
Win, lose, where next?
Each card shows the chance of reaching that match, the model win chance, and the city that opens up with a win. Most losses end the run; semifinal losers still go to the third-place match.
If group winner
15.6% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 78
New York/New Jersey
Tue, Jun 30 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
15.6%
Win this match: 39.2%
Total path chance: 6.1%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Round of 16
Lose this match: 60.8%
Total path chance: 9.5%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 91
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 5 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
6.1%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 2.3%
Next: Miami · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 3.8%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 99
Miami
Sat, Jul 11 · Hard Rock Stadium
Chance here
2.3%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.9%
Next: Atlanta · Semifinal
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 1.4%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 102
Atlanta
Wed, Jul 15 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chance here
0.9%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.3%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.6%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
0.3%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.1%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.2%
Next: Eliminated
If group runner-up
24.3% route probability
Round of 32 · Match 77
Dallas
Tue, Jun 30 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
24.3%
Win this match: 39.2%
Total path chance: 9.5%
Next: Philadelphia · Round of 16
Lose this match: 60.8%
Total path chance: 14.8%
Next: Eliminated
Round of 16 · Match 90
Philadelphia
Sat, Jul 4 · Lincoln Financial Field
Chance here
9.5%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 3.6%
Next: Boston · Quarterfinal
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 5.9%
Next: Eliminated
Quarterfinal · Match 97
Boston
Thu, Jul 9 · Gillette Stadium
Chance here
3.6%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 1.4%
Next: Dallas · Semifinal
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 2.2%
Next: Eliminated
Semifinal · Match 101
Dallas
Tue, Jul 14 · AT&T Stadium
Chance here
1.4%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.5%
Next: New York/New Jersey · Final
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.9%
Next: Miami · Third Place
Final · Match 104
New York/New Jersey
Sun, Jul 19 · MetLife Stadium
Chance here
0.5%
Win this match: 38%
Total path chance: 0.2%
Next: World Cup champion
Lose this match: 62%
Total path chance: 0.3%
Next: Eliminated
What this page is for
This page is for quick planning.
If you support Iraq, start here to see the cities that are already locked in. Tickets, hotels, and odds are useful later, but the first question is simpler: where might you need to be?